caa a22 4500 606168249 CHVBK 20210128100706.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11127-014-0205-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11127-014-0205-z Voting and the economic cycle [Elektronische Daten] [John Maloney, Andrew Pickering] Sophisticated voters assess incumbent competence by filtering out economic cycles (which they do not like) from trend growth (which they do). Naive voters on the other hand respond only to raw economic growth. This implies that voting in the aggregate should respond asymmetrically to the economic cycle. Upswings are rewarded by the naive, but punished by the sophisticated. Downswings are punished by all voters. Using an established dataset of over 400 general elections we find that the incumbent vote share (a) responds differently to trend growth than to the cycle, (b) does not respond significantly to positive variation in the economic cycle, and (c) responds significantly and negatively to negative realizations in the economic cycle. In contrast to standard formulations of the ‘grievance asymmetry' this asymmetric vote response is found to be independent of trend growth. Springer Science+Business Media New York, 2014 Economic voting nationallicence Competence nationallicence Political knowledge nationallicence Asymmetric voting nationallicence Maloney John Department of Economics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK aut Pickering Andrew Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, YO10 5DD, York, UK aut Public Choice Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 162/1-2(2015-01-01), 119-133 0048-5829 162:1-2<119 2015 162 11127 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-014-0205-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-014-0205-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Maloney John Department of Economics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pickering Andrew Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, YO10 5DD, York, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Public Choice Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 162/1-2(2015-01-01), 119-133 0048-5829 162:1-2<119 2015 162 11127