caa a22 4500 606170197 CHVBK 20210128100716.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10098-015-0978-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10098-015-0978-x The impact of time horizon on integrated climate assessment models [Elektronische Daten] [Kum Wong, Joon Chuah, Chris Hope] The PAGE09 model is a revised version of the earlier PAGE2002 and PAGE95 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that have been extensively used to evaluate climate change impacts and the social costs and benefits of different abatement and adaptation policies under uncertainty. This paper investigates the use of the latest PAGE09 model as a policy-oriented tool in determining an efficient climate change policy that internalises the mean social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2). We show that the choice of final analysis year, time horizon and the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions pathway in the PAGE09 model do significantly affect the model results for the SCCO2 and its trajectory over time and so the prescriptions of future climate policy. Further analysis shows that a constant time horizon and a slight modification of the penultimate analysis year which is currently fixed in the default model help avoid the underestimation of the SCCO2 in future years. This paper also highlights the potential benefit of a consensus position on the specification of time horizon for the development of future IAMs to aid policy making. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Integrated assessment models nationallicence Time horizon nationallicence Social cost of carbon dioxide nationallicence Climate policy nationallicence Wong Kum Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, CB2 1AG, Cambridge, UK aut Chuah Joon Division of Electrical Engineering, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, 9 JJ Thomson Avenue, CB3 0FA, Cambridge, UK aut Hope Chris Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, CB2 1AG, Cambridge, UK aut Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy Springer Berlin Heidelberg 17/8(2015-12-01), 2361-2374 1618-954X 17:8<2361 2015 17 10098 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-015-0978-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-015-0978-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wong Kum Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, CB2 1AG, Cambridge, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chuah Joon Division of Electrical Engineering, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, 9 JJ Thomson Avenue, CB3 0FA, Cambridge, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hope Chris Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, CB2 1AG, Cambridge, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy Springer Berlin Heidelberg 17/8(2015-12-01), 2361-2374 1618-954X 17:8<2361 2015 17 10098