caa a22 4500 606222286 CHVBK 20210128101132.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2 Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach [Elektronische Daten] [Kaan Sözmen, Belgin Unal, Simon Capewell, Julia Critchley, Martin O'Flaherty] Objectives: The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence. Methods: We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach. Results: T2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025. Conclusions: Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action. Swiss School of Public Health, 2014 Markov model nationallicence Diabetes nationallicence Projection nationallicence Intervention nationallicence Obesity nationallicence Sözmen Kaan Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Katip Celebi University, Izmir, Turkey aut Unal Belgin Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dokuz Eylül University, İnciraltı, Izmir, Turkey aut Capewell Simon Department of Public Health and Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK aut Critchley Julia Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK aut O'Flaherty Martin Department of Public Health and Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK aut International Journal of Public Health Springer Basel 60(2015-01-01), 13-21 1661-8556 60<13 2015 60 38 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sözmen Kaan Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Katip Celebi University, Izmir, Turkey aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Unal Belgin Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dokuz Eylül University, İnciraltı, Izmir, Turkey aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Capewell Simon Department of Public Health and Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Critchley Julia Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- O'Flaherty Martin Department of Public Health and Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Public Health Springer Basel 60(2015-01-01), 13-21 1661-8556 60<13 2015 60 38